There are many people who are predicting a war in Lebanon and possibly in the whole region in the near future. Of course, the conjecture is there, and the build up against Iran and the Lebanese Resistance by the US and the self declared Free World (where consumerism and money and media and image are the only alienations) is more intense than ever. Yet, I wonder: who is going to fight this war? The US? They are stuck in the Afganiraq quagmire. The UNIFIL forces? They know it would be suicidal. The Lebanese militias? See UNIFIL forces. Israel? Well Israel has always fought the wars of the Empire, this is its raison d'être. But is Israel ready for another war after the humiliation of 2006? Can it take the chance of another defeat? And how could it win? What could it win? They have destroyed, no annihilated, all the south and dahiyeh and a big part of Lebanon in 2006 and were not able to hold their ground. They don't seem to be more ready. In fact it seems to me that their army is scared. Of course they can attack unarmed flotillas with peace activists on board. They can bomb with drones a mega refugee camp, Gaza. But Lebanon? The South? Jaba `Amel? I don't think so.
But this has at least one important implication: if Israel cannot fight the wars of the Empire, if it cannot be the mercenary, the bully, the hired killer, it will lose its raison d'être. Maybe it already has.